Game Forty-Nine: Habs vs. Leafs

Third Period:

- Habs better in the second, 61% Fenwick, slight overall edge (52%) as we head to the third.

- Decent start to the 3rd. I remain steadfast the Habs will fade the deeper the period goes.

- Habs pressing, Leafs sitting on this quite a bit. Just one shit halfway through the period (very weak at that). Leafs simply watching the puck. Don't know if they can maintain this, even against the offensively incompetent Habs.

- Question answered. Subban with a wrister that banks off the post. Not sure if there was a deflection. Dirty goal. Tie game.

- Really surprised by how much the Habs have outplayed the Leafs in this period. Toronto just doesn't seem to have the horses to maintain pace. How the heck do they have 53 points? (Yeah yeah shootouts).

- Markov misses his check, and Emelin plays the puck and not the streaking van Reimsdyk. 4-3.

- Officials calling nothing. Leafs commiting countless offenses that are normally always called.

- Habs outperformed Leafs majority of the game, but their slow start did them in. Leafs just find a way of winning these games. Oh well. What goes up must come crashing down. They'll be crashing soon enough.

The Habs, meanwhile, are crashing in slow motion.

Second Period:

- As predicted, Habs indeed had 40% Fenwick (closed), less than 20% 5v5 in the first. That's ... astoundly abysmal.

- Habs attempting to grind this game to a halt in the second. But given how much Therrien is short-shifting his bench, the Habs probably don't have the horsepower to carry this through 60 minutes.

- I'm not afraid to admit it. God I love Brenden Gallagher. 

- Beaulieu with the fatal mistake of dishing instead of passing. The kid will learn for it, we hope. Meanwhile Price with a sensational stop off the resulting Kessel breakaway.

- Parros on the ice. Leafs score. Yup.

- Expect that should be Parros' final shift of the night. Otherwise, Leafs are just gonna keep pounding that chicken.

- Parros 3:00 so far. Nattinen 1:45. Habs are essentially playing just 3 lines tonight. No way they'll be able to compete on a level surface in the 3rd. #outcoached

- Too much open ice on the PK. Leafs open passing lanes, and Raymond buries it top shelf. 3-1 and Toronto are on their way.

- Briere with that sizzling Batum-level wrist shot. 

- A gift. Bernier can't handle a simple 60 footer and Gionta buries the juicy rebound. I guess that was his birthday present.

First Period:

- So Bourque, Diaz and Murray are the scratches. Hmmmm .... 

- Not often you see a guy from outer space sing the national anthem. Just sayin'.

- So obligatory Parros/Orr fight by end of the first? There's little other rational for either being in the lineup tonight.

- Leafs seem inclines to focused on hitting to start. It's helping them to generate some turnovers and early possession advantage.

- Alexei Emelin. It's hard to justify that contact when you're made a fool like that. 1-0 Leafs.

- Habs are getting their clocks cleaned by the woeful possession team that are the Leafs. How low can this team go?

- Well, Eller looks good. That's all I got.

- Game settling down a bit but Leafs are still dominating the neutral zone. Plus, the Habs self-inflicted wound that is their 4th line will invariably have to be played. 

- Habs great PK numbers are pure deception. It's mainly Carey Price.

- Emelin is a disaster on skates tonight. The Leafs are going to feast by sending out their number one line against him.

- Habs PP, Leafs PK was totally exhausted. We'll take it. Tie game.

- The scoreboard might be even but it was a woeful period for the Habs. Leafs will probably have close to 60% Fenwick. This from the second worst possession team in the NHL. Gives you an idea how broken the Canadiens are right now.

==================================================

YEAH BABY. It's the Habs and Leafs!! Two fierce rivals clash head-to-head in an ongoing battle to make the NHL playoffs. Two teams that have woefully inept offensive units, can't keep possession of the puck to save their lives, besieged by inept coaching which has fans from both sides of the aisle screaming for a coup d'etat. It's a match made in heaven!!

Do the Leafs even have 20 players to ice tonight? I'm looking at their presumed lineup, and it's looking .. uh ... thin?

But the Leafs are hot!! Winners of three in a row. Well, two of them were extra time victories. Which brings up the larger point - Toronto has managed to defy the rules of gravity most of this year. The Leafs have played 16 games requiring either extra time and/or a shootout, and they've won 11 of them. Sheesh. To put this into perspective, if the Leafs had only won a reasonable number of these games, say ... half, they'd be sitting in 13th place in the Conference, instead of their current position of the first wildcard position.

The Leafs have been incredibly fortunate. They have the 2nd worst fenwick percentage in the League, a pathetic 42%. The sheer fact they've been able to muscle out 24 wins this far, even though they've only had 4 regulation time wins over the past 33 games, is a pretty remarkable acheivement.

The Leafs received a bit of bad (I guess?) news recently with an elbow injury to David Clarkson, serious enough to place him on injured reserve. So with him out, expect the Leafs to serve up the following line combos:

Line 1: van Riemsdyk-Bozak-Kessel

Line 2: Raymond-Kadri-Lupul

Line 3: Kulemin-Holland-Ashton

Line 4: McClement-Orr-Bodie

Meanwhile over in Habsland, the picture isn't a whole lot different or brighter. Continuing to struggle offensively, suffocated by an ineptly over-conservative zone system that has an obsessive emphasis on goal clearance instead of transition, the Habs have some gaps to fill following the injury to Alex Galchenyuk and Ryan White, and a recent team battle with the flu bug which cause David Desharnais to miss a start, and apparently has laid claim to Raphael Diaz. Ergo, the Habs yesterday called up Nathan Beaulieu and Joonas Nattinen from the Bulldogs - expect the later to get 4th line spot duty (you know Therrien won't play him more than 6 minutes, tops), and the former to get paired with (I guess?) Doug Murray. Poor Nathan. He never stood a chance.

So there you have it. Two teams with mightily struggling offenses, playing over their heads for most of the year. So expect the unexpected, I suppose. Two points on the line - two fairly significant points as the Habs try to provide themselves with a bit of distance from "the rest of the pack", while the Leafs try to improve their slender hold on that wildcard spot.

Puck drops at 7:15 EST.

Oh!! By the way, tt's Hockey Day In Canada!

Yeah, me too. Who cares.

Game Twenty-Seven: Leafs vs. Habs

Third Period:

- Leafs come out charging, Habs need to survive first 5 minutes ... or else ....

- Game settling down a bit, which is fine from the Habs' perspective.

- Bernier keeping Leafs in this. Just barely.

- Bernier nice glove off the tip. Really liking Bourque's effort - quality tries on net, a less sharp netminder wouldn't have kept them all out.

- Habs a little too careful here, they'd better increase the tempo and bring this one home already.

- Definately one of Bourque's better games in awhile. Just needs to start producing points.

- Price forced to make a great save after Desharnais was mugged behind the Leafs' net. Refs have whistles firmly put away.

- 71 faceoffs and counting tonight, which is kinda crazy high.

- Plekanec can only shrug at that great save by Bernier - Leafs just won't quite go away, but time is running out.

-  Bourque can't be falted for lack of trying. Something's gotta give.

- Leafs really haven't been much of a threat since the 10 minute mark, but now they get a PP off a Van Riemsdyk dive. So weak.

- Phaneuf loses his cool, drives stake through the heart of Toronto's hopes. 

- Habs coasted to victory in the 3rd, really was no contest tonight, as Habs climb higher up the standings. The Leafs, judging by tonight's game, are heading for a hard fall.

Second Period:

- Leafs come out strong, really should have scored sans a lucky post bounce in Montreal's favor.

- Seems like Gallaher thrives these marquee Saturday night games against the Leafs. He knows a good portion of the nation is watching.

-  Parros vs. Orr. Let's just get it over with already.

- And they get it over with. Suitably, a draw. Now let's play some hockey.

- Kessel won't get them much easier than that. Leafs are snakebit.

- Pacioretty tackled on a breakaway. How that wasn't called ...

- Plekanec having quite the night - for not scoring any points. At least, yet.

- Leafs are gonna need a redeflect to beat Price tonight. If he sees it, it's not going in.

- Subban vs. Phaneuf ... Leafs will take that trade in the penalty box.

- Leafs pressing here, sensing that a goal surely must be close. But they'll have to be closer than 40 feet if they want to beat Price. So far most of their shots have been from long distance.

- Desharnais and Gallagher making an effective forechecking duo. Like their chemistry.

- Really there should be no reason why Parros should get another shift tonight.

- Plekanec, who's been massive this period, puts the Habs up 3-0. Briere doing some fine work battling for the puck along the boards. Gonna be hard for Toronto to recover from this far down.

- Briere looking great, Desharnais involved, now if Bourque could dial up his game,we'd really be cookin'.

- Pacioretty!! Bernier with the assist, and Max with his 9th shot of the night, now has three points. And counting.

- Habs letting it get to their heads - take defensive  siesta and Van Riemsdyk with a beauty flip shot that somehow slips through Price. Leafs with a sliver of hope now.

- Woah. Guys. Raymond unprotected, and Price with a bit of a juicy rebound. We've got ourselves a game. 4-2.

- Disappointig end to the period - the Habs really have this game owned, but let the Leafs slip back in. Now they'll have to actually work for it to finish things off in the 3rd. Do'h.

First Period:

- So Therrien goes with Parros, le sigh.

- Habs off to a blistering start, out skating and vastly outshooting the Leafs. But that's standard operation for Toronto isn't it?

- Pacioretty sprung on the break, bangs in his own rebound, and Habs take early lead.

- Habs forecheck creating lots of chance in Toronto's zone.

- Good no-goal call, Van Riemsdyk clearly interfering with Price.

- Pacioretty with six shots (!!!) so far and counting. The Leafs - six shots as well.

- Leafs Franson in the dressing room, apparently injured. That won't help Toronto much.

- Wouldn't be surprised if patches scores 2, 3 or 4 tonight. 

- Habs massively outhustling Leafs right now. Whether they can keep this up for 60 minutes is the big question.

- Subban scores his first in a month, this time not a slapper. Leafs opened the lane for P.K., and Habs take 2-0 lead. Patches the assist as he builds towards a big night on the scoresheet.

- Leafs reeling here, backing into their zone, and Habs are pelting Bernier as a result. Toronto wanting the clock down to zero so they can regroup in the room.

- As noted In our pregame preview the Leafs have been defying gravity this season, Habs returning Toronto further back to a proper orbit. No contest so far.

JUST SAY NO MICHEL. Orr won't get 6 minutes of ice tonight.

Gameday Game Preview:

Ah, Saturday night. The Leafs against the Habs. The one classic showdown that rarely disappoints. It's the CLASH OF THE TITANS.

Well, except that it isn't. It's a clash between a pretty decent playoff projected team (Habs) against, and this is not hyperbole, an AWFUL non-playoff team - the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Woah, woah, woah ... you might respond. The Leafs? The 14-9-3 Toronto Maple Leafs??!  Are you on Rob Ford crack? LOOK AT THEIR RECORD YOU IDIOT. THEY'RE HEADED FOR THE PLAYOFFS. THEY'RE A VERY GOOD TEAM. GO BACK TO RUSSIA YOU NINNY.

But, but, but .... I'd protest back, they're almost certainly not headed for the playoffs. Because, this:

- Corsi Differential (all situations): -16.6 (29th, only Buffalo is worse).
- Fenwick Differential (all situations): -12.6 (29th, only Buffalo is worse).
- Shot Differential: -12.6 (29th, only Buffalo is worse).

By the way, the second-to-last-ranking isn't even close to the teams ahead. They're buried in 29th place in these key categories, saved only by the fact that the Sabres might possibly be the worst team the League has seen in its modern history (and yet, somehow, the Leafs couldn't even beat them last night).

There's no logical way the Leafs should be even close to 14 wins when you look at their possession and shooting stats. No. Freaking. Way.

But ... they are. So what the heck is going on? Well, in this writer's opinion four elements have allowed the Leafs to stay somewhat competitive against their opposition. They are (in no real particular order):

1) Goaltending. For the most part, it's been very good. Jonathan Bernier and backup James Reimer have posted very similar numbers, both currently with a .931 SV%, with Bernier a slightly better GAA (2.33 vs. 2.58). Their collective performances have allowed the Leafs the opportunity to win close games against (as we shall see later) mainly less-than-average NHL teams.

2) Specialty Units. The Leafs have a pretty good powerplay, 24.4%, which has been producing goals at maddeningly apt times. Their production, in particular the timing of their production leads us into the next point ...

3) Luck. The Leafs have been incredibly lucky. Their shooting, while awful, is somehow finding the back of the net way more than it should be. Their PDO is 103.9, 3rd in the League. Only Anaheim and Colorado have been more fortunate in getting fortunate bounces. The luck love-in has also played a role in our next big category ...

4) Scheduling: Toronto's schedule has been uncannily *easy* - not only in that they've played against teams that have been struggling to get to the .500 mark, but they have played against teams that were struggling at the time of their games.

To give you some perspective on just how favorable the early season scheduling was, I've put together their win-loss record vs. "competitive" and "non-competitive" opponents. The metric for "competitive" being games against teams who at the time, had more wins than losses:

- Competitive: 2-7-1
- Non-Competitive: 12-2-2

So there you have it. Of the 26 teams they've faced this year, 10 have been against clubs with more wins that losses at the time the games were played, and the Leafs have just 2 wins to show for it. Meanwhile the Leafs have feasted (credit due - you're supposed to win these games) against teams playing under .500.

Luck, however, has this funny way of running out. The Leafs' fortunes, I'm afraid, cannot defy gravity forever - and the schedule, which was very kind through October and November, isn't looking so easy in December. In addition to facing the Habs tonight, the Leafs can look forward to clubs, mainly from the Western Conference, that are either at, or significant above the .500 threshold. The Sharks, Stars, Kings, Blackhawks, Blues, Coyotes from the West, the Bruins, Pens, and Red Wings from the East.

I foresee a very, very difficult month of December for the Leafs, and a resulting tumble down the Eastern Conference standings.

SO TONIGHT. The Leafs take on the Habs, who even with the shootout loss last night, are still playing some pretty decent hockey, and have been since their roster returned to full health. Thomas Plekance, who must NEVER AGAIN participate in a shootout, has been racking up the points. Andrei Markov continues to hold a hot hand, and Habs goaltending, even though Peter Budaj was a bit "meh" last night against the Caps, has been stellar.

The big question tonight is whether Michel Therrien can resist temptation, and NOT insert George Parros into the lineup. In the games which Parros has played, the Habs' record is 0-4-1.  Without him in the lineup, 14-5-2.

Don't do it Michel. Just don't do it.

Puck drops at 7:15 EST.